What Ted Lasso can teach us about the California property and casualty market

I've been rewatching (again) Ted Lasso with my wife, and somewhere around season two I realized — the AFC Richmond locker room has a lot in common with the California property and casualty market right now.

Stay with me.

We've had a rough stretch. Wildfires. Carrier pullouts. Rate increases that make your eyes water. Clients calling confused and frustrated. If you're a California homeowner or business owner, the last few years have felt a lot like Richmond's early losing streak — like the game is rigged and nobody's got a plan.

But here's the thing Ted would say: "Be curious, not judgmental."

So instead of just accepting the doom-and-gloom narrative, let's look at what's actually happening — and what a fictional soccer coach from Kansas can teach us about moving forward.

Ted Lasso: optimism is a strategy, not a personality trait

Ted walks into a sport he doesn't understand, in a country that doesn't want him, working for an owner who hired him to fail. And his response? Radical optimism.

That's where California P&C clients need to be right now.

The Insurance Journal's 2026 Casualty Market Report confirms what we're all feeling: the market remains hard, rates are still climbing, and carriers are being pickier than ever about what they'll write. But — and this is the Ted Lasso part — the pace of rate increases is moderating. The worst may actually be behind us.

Ted didn't promise Richmond they'd win the Premier League overnight. He promised them they'd get better every single day. That's the honest outlook for California insurance right now. It's not fixed yet, but the trajectory is shifting.

Roy Kent: discipline wins in the long run

Roy Kent doesn't cut corners. He doesn't fake effort. He shows up, does the hard work, and holds everyone around him to a higher standard.

That's exactly what the best carriers are doing right now.

Underwriting discipline — stricter standards, more selective risk assessment, better use of data and technology — isn't fun when you're on the receiving end of a non-renewal letter. I get that. But it's the same discipline that will stabilize this market over time.

Think of it this way: a carrier that writes everything and prices it cheap is the Jamie Tartt of season one — flashy and reckless. The Roy Kents of the industry are the ones who will still be standing and paying claims five years from now.

What this means for you: Position yourself as a "Roy Kent" risk. Maintain your property. Document your safety measures. Work with your broker to tell your story to underwriters. Disciplined carriers reward disciplined clients.

Rebecca Welton: rebuilding after the worst thing happens

Rebecca buys Richmond to destroy it. Then she realizes she actually cares. And the rebuilding — honest, vulnerable, brick by brick — becomes the whole point of the show.

California is in its Rebecca arc.

After years of catastrophic wildfire losses and carriers fleeing the state, we're seeing real structural change. New regulations. Updated modeling. Carriers cautiously re-entering the market with better pricing frameworks. The California FAIR Plan isn't anyone's first choice, but it's being reformed and expanded. Insurtech companies are building wildfire-specific products that didn't exist three years ago.

None of this is a silver bullet. Rebecca didn't fix Richmond in a montage. But the foundation is being laid for a healthier market — and that matters.

Jamie Tartt: growth means letting go of what used to work

Jamie's whole arc is about shedding the ego and learning to play for the team. Early Jamie wanted the spotlight. Mature Jamie wanted the win.

For California property owners, the old playbook — "just renew with the same carrier every year and don't think about it" — is Jamie Tartt season one. It doesn't work anymore.

The mature approach looks like this:

That last one is pure Ted Lasso energy. Curiosity over complaint.

Keeley Jones: relationships are the whole game

Keeley is the connector. The trust-builder. The person who makes everyone in the room feel heard and valued. And in a hard insurance market, your relationship with your broker is everything.

When capacity is tight and carriers are being selective, the agencies that get the best results for their clients are the ones with deep, trusted relationships with underwriters. That's not marketing fluff. It's how a borderline risk gets written instead of declined. It's how a claim gets handled with empathy instead of bureaucracy.

At Nadler Insurance, we've been doing this since 1927. Four generations of building relationships with carriers, underwriters, and adjusters — so when the market gets tough, we're not introducing ourselves for the first time. We're calling people who know us and trust us.

That's the advantage of working with an independent agent. We're not locked into one carrier's playbook. We're Keeley — connecting you to the right people at the right time.

The "Believe" sign: what the forward outlook actually looks like

Ted's locker room sign didn't say "Everything is fine." It said "Believe." That's an active choice. A commitment to showing up even when the scoreboard is ugly.

Here's what I believe about California P&C over the next 12 to 24 months:

Richmond didn't win by pretending the losses didn't happen. They won by believing the losses weren't the whole story.

That's where we are. The losses are real. The frustration is real. But the California insurance market is not a lost cause — it's a team in the middle of a rebuild. And if you've got the right people around you, the right strategy, and a little bit of that Ted Lasso belief?

You're going to be just fine.

Zach Nadler is a fourth-generation insurance advisor at Nadler Insurance in San Carlos, CA. If your California property or casualty coverage feels like it's in a relegation battle, let's talk.